Supreme Test For Punters

The curtain raiser at the Cheltenham Festival each year is the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle and with excitement and anticipation at fever pitch there is a tendency for many punters to throw caution to the wind and punt big on the first contest of the week.

This should be one of the best races for punters during the Festival — a straightforward level weights hurdle race over the minimum distance — the best horse should invariably win.

Unfortunately this isn’t necessarily the case. The stats show 50% of the last 24 runnings of the Supreme Novices Hurdle have been won by horses at double digit odds. These include a 50/1 winner, a 40/1 and three more sent off at 25/1.

So why is this the case? Well the prime reason is that these horses are un-exposed, most have only had two or three previous runs over hurdles coming into Cheltenham so we are only guessing as to their true ability. In 2016 the subsequent dual Champion Hurdle winner Buveur D’air was sent off at 10/1 to win the Supreme Novices Hurdle and only finished third. It admittedly took a couple of good ones to beat him — Altior and Min — but it shows the quality of horse that you are taking on here.

The majority of horses have also never raced at such a big occasion and this lack of experience can be a distinct negative for some horses. Last year Getabird was sent off a strong 7/4 favourite for the contest but raced far too keenly in the early stages and trailed home in ninth place.

This race tends to be run at a strong gallop which will be a new experience for many and will catch out those horses that are not fluent hurdlers and there is no hiding place for a horse with a wind problem as the final climb to the finish will expose any weaknesses in that area.

So, looking ahead to this year’s race I have the distinct feeling that this is a particularly tricky renewal. Due to the unusually dry winter we have seen less of some of the leading contenders than might normally be the case.

The market is currently headed by Al Dancer ( 3/1 BoyleSports ) who is not your typical favourite as he has been competing in handicaps. That said he looks solid each-way material as he is more experienced than most of his rivals with four straight wins over hurdles and has already won over the course. The suspicion is that he may lack the class of a true champion.

Next in the betting is the Joseph O’Brien trained Fakir D’oudairies at 4/1. He produced a scintillating performance when winning by 13 lengths over the course in a Grade 2 juvenile contest at the end of January. It is unusual to see a four-year-old towards the head of the market for this race as they normally stick to their own age group at the Festival but such is O’Brien’s strength in depth in that division that he probably has to run at least one here. With only two hurdle outings Fakir D’oudairies is unexposed and potentially high class but I’ve only ever seen one four-year-old win this race and that was twenty years ago.

There are actually seven four-year-olds entered this time and all are Irish trained, three from Joseph O’Brien and four from Gordon Elliott. Only three horses of that age group have raced in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle over the last ten years and the best finish was ninth place.

Willie Mullins is the go-to trainer when looking for the winner of the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle with three recent successes, Champagne Fever 2013, Vautour 2014, Douvan 2015 and leading contenders every year. He has a host of entries this year but it is increasingly looking like his best hope will not run here.

Reading between the lines it appears that the Mullins camp think they have two serious Novice Hurdlers in Klassical Dream and Allaho. Under normal circumstances Klassical Dream would run here and Allaho would go to the Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle but I get the impression that Aramon surprised them when running Klassical Dream so close at Leopardstown and they have had a rethink.

Allaho will now go over three miles in the Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle and Klassical Dream is heading for the Ballymore leaving Aramon (12/1 Bet365) to be the chief flag bearer for the yard here.

Should those plans change regarding Klassical Dream he would be a strong fancy here.

If I’m right about Klassical Dream, Aramon has to have a serious chance in this. He is already a wide margin winner of a Grade 1 and might have beaten Klassical Dream in the aforementioned Leopardstown race if he had kept a straight line from the last.

Aramon hung to the left when battling it out with Klassical Dream and did the same one day when he won at Navan which is a slight concern.

Mullins has a number of other entries for this race but with the exception of the unexposed Annamix (beaten on one run over hurdles at Christmas) the rest don’t look quite up to the task.

Cheltenham’s leading trainer for the last two years, Gordon Elliott, has a host of entries but none of them feature towards the head of the market. The majority of his entries are owned by Gigginstown House Stud and the types of horses they buy are not normally suited to a speed test such as this. One notable exception could be Felix Desjy (20/1 Unibet).

Felix Desjy made the perfect start to his career with a Point-to-Point victory followed by two Bumper wins. He then ran in last season’s Champion Bumper where he finished a respectable sixth in a first time hood. Over hurdles this season he had mixed results in the hood and it was dispensed with for his most recent win after which Elliott was more inclined to put the improvement down to a change in riding tactics. They forced the pace with him that day in Punchestown.

It may be just a coincidence that he has had four different riders in his last four races but I suspect he is a tricky customer and he reminds me of Labaik which famously won this race for the same yard two years ago. It wouldn’t surprise me to see a big performance from Felix Desjy on the day and it will be interesting to see if any headgear is fitted.

The remainder of Elliott’s entries that are not owned by Gigginstown, such as the unbeaten Galvin, don’t appear good enough but you underestimate Elliott at your peril.

Angel’s Breath, in similar ownership to Al Dancer and representing British Champion Trainer Nicky Henderson was favourite for this race for much of the winter despite only jumping four hurdles in public when scoring in a Grade 2 contest at Ascot in December (remaining hurdles were omitted due to head winds in the straight). He reappeared recently at Kempton Park but couldn’t manage to concede five pounds to County Hurdle entry Southfield Stone.

Angel’s Breath is a Point-to-Point winner on testing ground and his full sister appears to need a trip so it would be no surprise if he was to be more suited by the Ballymore than the Supreme.

Elixer De Nutz comes into the reckoning by virtue of the fact that he has so much experience of the course. He has raced four times over hurdles at Cheltenham resulting in two victories and while you’d have to feel he falls someway short of the required standard this course knowledge is a big plus in a wide open renewal.

Selections

1 Aramon 12/1 Bet365

2 Felix Desjy 20/1 Unibet

3 Al Dancer 3/1 Boylesports

By Vincent Finegan