Emma Nagle reveals a 16-1 each-way delight on British Champions Day Storm Babet has brought with it persistent rain, strong winds and severe flooding, battering parts of Ireland and the UK. Ascot, however, has prevailed and we are set to see an array of talent line up at Qipco British Champions Day. One Irish runner who shouldn’t be inconvenienced by the testing conditions is Paddington, who struck in the mud at Goodwood back in August. The magnificent Tahiyra and admirable filly Jackie Oh, also fly the flag for Ireland. With four Group 1s on the card, a Group 2 and an ultra-competitive handicap to round off the day, make sure you get a host of free bets to spend with BoyleSports. Emma Nagle’s Tips Our racing and form expert Emma Nagle, delves into the form and offers up her best bets at Ascot, including a 16-1 fancy in the Balmoral Handicap. 2.25 Qipco British Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes (Group 1) In a race that has been run since 1979, only one five-year-old has ever come out on top, and I struggle to see the early market leader Free Wind bucking that trend. She comes here on the back of a very tame effort in the Arc and even if forgiven for that, her trainer has blamed similar ground conditions for defeats in the past. At the expense of their older counterparts, the classic generation has dominated this race, winning 7 of the last 10 renewals. On a day that will decide the trainers title, three-year-old Jackie Oh could land a vital blow for Ballydoyle. The daughter of Galileo is coming here on the back of a cracking run behind Blue Rose Cen on Arc weekend. She always seems to be doing her best work at the end of her races, so this step up to 12f should really bring out the best in her. Ground won’t be an issue and I find it very hard to see her being beaten here. 3.05 Queen Elizabeth II Stakes In what looks like the race of the day, the Irish are extremely strong-handed. Two of the best of our classic generation, Tahiyra and Paddington come to blows for the first time. Throw Nashwa into the mix and we are in for a real treat. Aidan O’Brien has suggested that this could well be the last time we see the mighty Paddington on a racecourse and I’m hoping he can go out on a high. Looking a bit flat on his last start, he should have benefited from a small break after such a busy schedule. He has got form to overturn with Nashwa, and meets her at less favourable terms here, but I think we may see a different horse at Ascot. At his best, he should come out on top. While Tahiyra has shown form on soft ground before, Dermot Weld will make a late decision on her participation depending on ground conditions. If she does line up, she will serve it right up to the top two in the market, but may ultimately come up short to Paddington. 3.45 Qipco Champion Stakes (Group 1) Some true greats have graced this race in years gone by, but the complexion of this year's renewal is slightly different. While perhaps lacking a real ‘star’ from the lineup, it still looks like an ultra competitive contest. Cases can be made for plenty here, but the unpromising weather forecast will have a big impact. Mostahdaf comes into this as the highest rated horse in the field, and if running to this year's form he would beat these. However, John Gosden’s five-year-old looks doubtful to take his chance on the ground. While it is not fully known how he would act in these conditions, even if he turns up it would be hard to exude too much confidence in him given stable worries. Bay Bridge conquered the great Baaeed in last year's renewal, it wouldn’t be as great a shock if he was to get his head in front again this time. The five-year-old should relish the conditions but I think he is vulnerable to an improver. That would lead me to King Of Steel who has shown himself well in better races than this. The son of Wootton Bassett didn’t have much luck in the Irish equivalent last time, but I would imagine Frankie will get the best out of him on the big day. The ground may be a worry but connections seem confident he will handle it so he looks the one to beat for me. 4.25 Balmoral Handicap A tricky handicap to end the day but Vetiver caught my eye at a big price. The Andrew Balding trained filly is very unexposed, but has shown class on softer ground when readily winning a listed contest back in June. She didn’t disgrace herself behind Matilda Piccotte last time at Doncaster when looking a bit green, and that form has since been franked. The big chestnut filly is a keen going type, as the customary hood may suggest, and key to her chances may be how well she can settle early on. At around 20/1, I think she’s worth an each-way bet. 18+ please gamble responsibly. Begambleaware.org. Dunlewey.org
