What are the Factors that can Influence Cheltenham Betting Odds

The Cheltenham festival is looking to redeem itself this year at the Cheltenham Racecourse, from March 16th until March 19.

With 28 races offered at Cheltenham 2021, it is very difficult to choose the winner of a single event, let alone the Cheltenham Gold Cup. So, what comes into calculations when bookies make the odds?

Obviously, bookies look at the contender’s track record, recent form, trainer and rider connections and even lineage.

But is there more to it?

You may want to know the answer to these questions with the approaching 2021 Cheltenham Festival.

Here are a few things that might factor in while calculating the Cheltenham betting odds.

Maths behind Cheltenham betting tips

Bookies can’t calculate the odds from the best bookmakers without employing a maths wiz or two to come up with the likelihood of a horse winning or finishing in a certain position.

The tips, therefore, are not just magic words that help people win money. If that were true, there would be a lot more winners at the Cheltenham festival.

Eyeballing a statistic is fine when we are talking about matters where even when the desired outcome is not achieved, there is no real harm done.

However, the betting industry is worth several billions of pounds, so we can safely assume that bookies want all the data they can get their hands on and the people efficient at interpreting them on their side.

Calculating the Odds of Cheltenham Races

What is the maths behind the odds of horse racing?

It is statistics: how likely is it that a certain outcome, like someone dominating a Cheltenham race in particular, is going to take place?

We will spare you the terms such as the chi-square, Fisher’s exact, and other formulas used for calculating the odds. Let’s keep it simple for now with how the odds are displayed.

6-5 odds, for example, mean that you will get €6 in net profit for every €5 you place - provided the desired outcome takes place. As this is different from other sports with only two sides, naturally every horse has its own racing odds and even more so if you are planning an elaborate bet that involves several horses in different races.

How Do Bookies Earn Money Then?

Bookies don’t usually lose money. This is because all their bets contain something called the betting margin or over-round. This happens when bookies receive the real odds and then modify them to make sure they win money either way. If there was a two horse race where both horses had equal changes of winning the bookies should in theory bet even money each horse but in reality they add in an extra percentage on each horse creating their margin. So in this particular example they will bet 4/5 each horse. If the bookies lays both horses to equal amounts they will win no matter what the outcome of the race.

Factors in Cheltenham Betting

Let’s talk about all the different inside and outside factors that may come into play. The mysteries of horse racing are about to be revealed.

Weather Conditions

Whether you’ve participated in the ante-post betting or not, it’s not unusual to see the odds change near to the time of the event. This can often be due to the prevailing weather, or more importantly the ground conditions.

Horses, like people, can perform differently under different conditions. Some horses excel on quick or form ground while others require soft or testing ground to produce their best form.

Checking a horse's previous record on similar ground conditions can be a good indicator as to how it will perform in its next race.

Stallion or Gelding, Filly or Mare

Let’s break down a few terms before we continue this journey.

The term foal refers to the offspring of a horse and denotes either sex. Colts are male horses, usually between 2 and 4 years old. Fillies are young female horses, either 3 or younger, though some places in the world make the cutoff age 5. Stallions are adult male horses and mares are adult female horses.

And then we have the geldings. A gelding is a male horse that has been castrated. Why would people do this, you may ask? Isn't the whole point of having a racehorse having it make money for you by either racing or breeding?

Some horse racing events do not allow geldings to compete. However, the appeal in training a gelding is that you get more obedience and technique than you do with stallions. The vast majority of male horses that compete in national hunt racing such as Cheltenham festival are geldings.

So, which should you go for? In truth both male and female horses perform equally as well. At Cheltenham the femaIe horses receive a weight allowance of 7 pounds in Championship races such as the Cheltenham Gold Cup which can be a significant advantage if they are good enough in the first place.

Is Age Important in Horse racing?

So, if the question of odds lies in the age and experience of the competitors, at what age do race horses reach their prime?

A study found that the peak age of a racing horse is around 4.45 years. This research was conducted on 274 male Thoroughbred horses in the US. Horses, at least the males, start rapidly improving between the ages 2-4.

However, the decline of speed and power after the horse reaches the age of 4 is not as rapid as the ascent was. This means that you should not readily discount older horses. Especially if you are considering National Hunt racing. The national hunt horses mature later in life and genarally don't begin racing until they are 5 and for steeplechasers they often don't reach their peack until 9 or 10.

So, apart from the track record and the type of ground, a horse’s age factors in when determining the odds. It’s only natural, as many events in the world of horse racing exclude horses that have not reached a certain age. It makes the calculations a bit more precise and it allows only experienced mounts to compete.

What Racing Fans Should Know about the Terrain

There are two basic types of surface horses race on, artificial or all-weather, of on turf. The Cheltenham Festival is raced on turf as is all national hunt racing.

Within national hunt racing there are two main categories of races, hurdle races and stepple chases. The hurdle races require the horses to jump over small obstacles during the race. The stepple chases are similar except that the obstacles are big and less forgiving.

For each race meeting there is a going description announced in advance as to the condition of the surface. This can range from firm to heavy for turf races while on the all-weather surfaces it is normally described as standard as the surface is not affected by the weather.

Where Does That Leave Us?

When you look at the offers and odds, you now know which factors do and don’t come up.

Do not rely too much on the ‘secret tips’ you may receive from a ‘trusted source’. Take into account the above mentioned factors and advice and make the best betting decision for this British horse racing event.