It's long odds on about today's Vodafone Oaks being won by one of the first four horses in the betting but the best bet of all looks like being Melikah and the least experienced Epsom jockey in the whole race.
Chris McCarron's previous Epsom experience consists of a 14th placing on Bold Arrangement in the 1986 Derby. When you contrast that with Michael Kinane and Kieren Fallon, never mind the remarkable Oaks record of Henry Cecil, trainer of the favourite Love Divine, then McCarron is clearly at a disadvantage.
Sheikh Mohammaed evidently feels not that much of a disadvantage however, and the Godolphin record proves the Sheikh rarely gets it wrong. Neither in fairness does McCarron.
The veteran American rider has over 6,000 career winners and they include some of the star names of American racing in the last 20 years. The records of horses such as Alysheba, Sunday Silence and John Henry testify to McCarron's talent.
But he is in comparatively virgin territory here. To compound that, McCarron's horse is the least experienced horse in the race, too. But at generally available odds of 10 to 1, Melikah and McCarron look attractive.
For one thing, McCarron will have been able to get his eye in earlier in the day, including when riding Fantastic Light in the Coronation Cup, and another is that the annual prophets of doom who build up the Epsom challenge to incredible heights for the novice almost always have to deal with anti-climax. McCarron is too wily to be phased by Epsom.
Whether Melikah will be is open to question but an unbeaten Godolphin filly in the Oaks starting at a double figure price is almost unthinkable. Especially an unbeaten Godolphin filly who did so well to win at Newmarket last month.
A funereal early pace in the Pretty Polly Stakes over 10 furlongs was totally unsuitable for a daughter of two Arc winners in Lammtarra and Urban Sea and the unfortunate Frankie Dettori was working like a dervish from some way out. Yet Melikah won. In the last strides sure, but that she won at all was remarkable.
The hike in trip, the almost certain good gallop that a field of 18 will generate and Godolphins's own splendid Oaks record (Balanchine and Moonshell) are all in Melikah's favour even if she does face a quality field of fillies.
The bookies believe Love Divine's Lupe win entitles her to favourtism but how much of that is down to Henry Cecil's record in the race which stretches back to Oh So Sharp 15 years ago and five other victories since then.
The recent health problems in Cecil's yard can't have aided Love Divine's preperation and all told she doesn't look value. Kalypso Katie won narrowly at York but because she was in season in the Musidora her reviews were spectacular. Kalypso Katie has yet to actually match those reviews on the track and Epsom might just not suit a long striding filly like her.
The other main market rival is the 1,000 Guineas third Petruskha on which Kieren Fallon is attempting an Oaks hattrick. She was found to be wrong after Newmarket but good as she is her stamina is unproven.
There are question marks over Melikah also of course but stamina isn't one of them and at 10 to 1 the others look worth taking on board.
If Melikah obliges, McCarron will be the first American since Steve Cauthen in 1989 to win the Oaks but he also has a first rate chance in the Coronation Cup which has cut up to just four runners, half of them from Godolphin.
Fantastic Light won in Dubai for Michael Stoute who himself has taken over last year's Derby runner-up Daliapour from Luca Cumani. That colt's first run for Stoute yielded an Ormonde Stakes win and that recent run can give Fallon's mount the edge.
