How To Measure Value In Horse Racing Betting With so much racing taking place at this time of year it can be very difficult to keep on top of the form or find the time to analyse it. There are 184 race meetings scheduled to take place in Ireland and Great Britain in June which means almost 800 races See all the Fixtures Then there are dozens of online bookmakers competing against each other to offer the best odds on each individual runner. However, making a value bet is something that only those ‘in the know’ will truly search for. What do we mean by that, you ask? Well, let us explain. The Concept Of Value You could scour the racing sites for hours on end, placing bets on every potential winning horse that you come across but the simple fact of the matter is that you’re not going to win every bet that you place. For this reason, placing value bets is the key, but what exactly do we mean by ‘value’? Value, in horse racing, essentially means taking the odds of a wager and comparing it to the actual chance that the horse will win. What Is Value Betting? Well, it’s more or less what the name suggests — you place a valuable bet. Within horse racing, value betting is essentially the act of finding the selection that has a higher probability of occurring than the odds suggest, therefore making it a valuable bet. Successful bettors learn over time how to tell what the chance of an outcome happening is, and how it stands up against the odds being offered on any betting site. For the most part, odds tend to a fairly accurate reflection of the chances but there are always mistakes and underestimations and this is where bettors can really take advantage of bookmakers. While identifying a value bet can be a little overwhelming for those just starting out, by making your own odds and thinking in probabilities as opposed to industry favourites, you could be well on your way to doing just that. Value bets can often be a case of calculations and mathematics, though careful assessment and evaluation of news and how certain horses have performed and will perform is also something that you need to consider when deciding on value. A/E Measurement A/E, also known as ‘value index’ can help determine the value on offer from a particular set of statistics, and refers to the actual number of winners compared to the expected number of winners. This stat is usually used instead of an ROI (Return On Investment) stat and is used to calculate an index via value. We use the measurement of A/E to determine the value on offer from a particular set of statistics or a system. A/E refers to actual number of winners divided by the expected number of winners. 1 is the base mark and indicates that the actual number of winners corresponds to the expected number of winners based upon odds. Below 1 indicates poor value and above 1 indicates good value Calculating this stat requires you to, of course, know the actual and expected number of winners. The ‘actual’ number of winners is simple — you look at who actually won, but calculating the expected number is a little trickier! First, you have to determine the probability of winning of each individual horse which is not the same as the ‘odds’. To calculate this, you can use the “Odds Of Winning = 1 / (price 1)” formula. From here, you can determine the total and then add up every probability across the horses to make up your expected total of winners. An Example Of How This Works If you place 10 bets at odds of 4/1 statistically you would expect to have 2 winners. One bet out of every 5 should win or 20% of your bets. And at those odds you would break even with 2 winners. So Actual winners is 2 and expected winners is 2 which gives you an A/E of 2/2 = 1. If 3 horses win you have 3/2 = 1.5 If 1 horse wins you have ½ = 0.5 The A/E function is the ultimate measure of value as it takes into consideration the odds of each individual odds and crunches them into a final figure. However when scrutinising the A/E, it is worth noting the total number of runners. Obviously the more data (runners) to go on, the more accurate the A/E, as the bigger the sample size, the more reliable the results.