Gold Cup picture far from clear There are so many ifs and buts about this year’s Bulmers Cheltenham Gold Cup that make it both intriguing and frustrating in equal measure to try and assess. Firstly, we have the Antepost favourite Presenting Percy(3/1 Bet365) who has not jumped a fence in public since winning the RSA Chase at last year’s Festival. The horse has a huge following which is as much to do with his media shy trainer as the horse himself. Pat Kelly frustrates some with his refusal to do interviews but he has proven over many years that he is a master of his craft when given the right material. Kelly hit the big time in the early 1990s when he trained two winners of the Galway Hurdle in the space of four years with Natalies Fancy (1992) and No Tag (1995). Rather than this being the catalyst for further success he more or less disappeared off the radar and both horses subsequently changed yards. He had several blank years on the racecourse during the early 2000s and averaged less than two winners a year from 2000 to 2015. Then everything changed with the arrival of Mall Dini and Presenting Percy. All of a sudden he had two proper horses and once again showed that he knew exactly what to do with them. He won the 2016 Pertemps Handicap Hurdle at Cheltenham with Mall Dini. Repeated the feat with Presenting Percy in the same race twelve months later and again hit the mark at Cheltenham last season when Presenting Percy landed the RSA Chase by seven lengths from Monalee. The RSA is seldom a bad race and the natural progression for the winner is to be aimed at the Gold Cup the following year. Look Like Trouble (2000 Gold Cup), Denman (2008), Bobsworth (2013) and Lord Windermere (2014) all landed the Gold Cup the year after winning the RSA and the 2017 RSA winner Might Bite went pretty close to doing the same last year. Presenting Percy’s one public appearance this season was over hurdles at Gowran Park when he beat some decent horses in the Galmoy Hurdle. It was a very good seasonal debut and if it had been a chase I don’t think anyone would be overly concerned about him heading to Cheltenham off the back of it. Personally I have no worries about him jumping around Cheltenham, Davy Russell is a huge asset in that department, and I’m sure Pat Kelly has made the correct decision to not risk him on unsuitable ground. Victory would irk a few journalists which isn’t a bad thing either. The one fear is that if for any reason he doesn’t perform on the day Kelly will be vilified and I don’t think that is fair. He is doing everything to give his horse the best chance he can at Cheltenham. Clan Des Obeaux is rising through the ranks at a rapid rate and could well go off favourite on the day with the Nicholls yard in flying form. He is only a seven year old but has already shown some high class form with victories in the King George VI Chase at Kempton in December where he left a strong field in his wake and again in a small field at Ascot in February. The chief concern is whether or not he will see out the stamina test of a Gold Cup. Only twice has he raced beyond three miles and was beaten both times. He has also raced at Cheltenham four times (once at festival) and never won. Nicholls is also intending to run another in-form seven year old, Frodon, but again the distance is a worry. He dug deep to win over a similar trip at the course in January but that was at a level or two below a Gold Cup and previous form suggests he won’t get home. Willie Mullins has famously never won the Gold Cup but it is surely only a matter of time before he rectifies that stat. This year he is throwing four darts — Kemboy, Al Boum Photo, Bellshill and Invitation Only — not a particularly good sign as if he thought he had the winner he wouldn’t be inclined to run three more. That said they each have some sort of each-way chance in an open year. Kemboy is the shortest of them in the betting but it will be a surprise to me if he stays. Mullins did run him in last year’s Irish Grand National (a first fence faller) so maybe I am way off the mark but his Leopardstown victory in the Savills Chase didn’t allay fears. That three mile contest was run at a pedestrian early gallop and turned into a bit of a sprint from the second last. He didn’t exactly power up the hill in his two previous visits to the Festival when fifth in the Neptune Hurdle 2017 and fourth in the JLT Novices Chase last year. Bellshill would be my idea of the best chance of Mullins’ quartet. He was behind Kemboy at Leopardstown but since reversed form from that race with Road To Respect when given a beautiful ride by Ruby Walsh. His jumping that day was a sight to behold. If Ruby chooses him I would expect a big run. Bellshill was third to Might Bite in an RSA Chase and was only beaten bits and pieces in last year’s Irish Grand National when giving a stone and a half to each of the horses around him. Last year’s Gold Cup was a great race to watch with two top class chasers going head-to-head from the outset. Native River (5/1 BoyleSports) was a worthy champion and despite two defeats this season I would be inclined to be in his corner again if the ground comes up soft. Similar to the likes of Presenting Percy he has been trained with one race in mind and if he puts it altogether on the day he is once again the most likely winner. Might Bite, a gallant second last year, has been out of sorts so far this season and hasn’t beaten a horse home on either of his two runs. He was found to have bled from the nose after disappointing in the King George which is off putting. One other contender that I could see running well at a price is former Stayers Hurdle winner Thistlecrack (16/1 Unibet). He missed most of last season but there is distinct merit in his two runs this season. The stiff Haydock fences caught him out on his first outing but he kept battling to finish third. He then ran second to Clan Des Obeaux over three miles in the King George, a race that wouldn’t have played to his strengths. Selections 1. Native River 5/1 BoyleSports 2. Presenting Percy 3/1 Bet365 3. Thistlecrack 16/1 Unibet By Vincent Finegan
