Eight Year Wait for Gold Cup Glory?

Last Instalment will head to Cheltenham in two weeks' time as Ireland's flag bearer in the Gold Cup, a race that an Irish trained horse hasn't won since War of Attrition landed the spoils for trainer Mouse Morris and owner, Michael O'Leary, in the hands of Conor O'Dwyer back in 2006.

As far as the latest odds are concerned, it is the Philip Fenton trained nine-year-old who rates as the best hope of ending what has been a frustrating seven years for Irish racing fans as far as the feature race of the National Hunt season is concerned.

The Paul Nicholls domination of the Grade One with Kauto Star and Denman, which immediately followed War of Attrition's win, meant no Irish hopeful got a look in between 2007 and 2009 and it wasn't until Cooldine in 2010 that Ireland could lay claim to a genuine Gold Cup contender but the Willie Mullins trained former RSA Chase winner was no match for Imperial Commander that year, finishing fifth. Kempes was another hopeful from the Mullins yard who carried the weight of a nation around the famous Prestbury Park course before being pulled up in 2011 and it wasn't until last year when Sir Des Champs finished second behind Bobs Worth that Ireland came anywhere close to ending its Gold Cup drought.

That seven length defeat 12 months ago was the closest Willie Mullins has come to emulating his late father, who won the Gold Cup in 1986 with Dawn Run. However, following a season-ending tendon injury to Sir Des Champs in the Lexus Chase in December, it seems that the County Carlow handler may have to wait a little longer for one of the few Cheltenham races that eludes the 57-year-old. His sole entry for the 2014 renewal is 33/1 chance, Boston Bob, who fell at the last when looking the likely winner of the RSA Chase 12 months ago before a subsequent fall in the Champion Novice Chase at the Punchestown Festival. A disappointing effort in the Cleeve Hurdle last time out has cast doubts about the future of the nine-year-old and the fact he's entered in four different races at the Cheltenham Festival suggests that connections aren't sure of what direction to take.

There are no such concerns surrounding Last Instalment though, whose price for the Gold Cup has continued to shorten over the past few weeks since winning the Irish Hennessy Gold Cup. Unbeaten as a novice chaser two seasons ago, the nine-year-old missed 23 months through injury before finishing third in a Grade Two at Thurles in January before his impressive eight and half length victory in the Hennessy at Leopardstown. That win saw his odds for the Gold Cup cut from 50/1 to 12/1, which has gradually contracted further since and is now as short as 5/1 with 7/1 the best price available.

Last Instalment's owner, Michael O'Leary, will be hoping that his runner can end Ireland's eight year wait for Gold Cup glory in the same colours War of Attrition carried to victory back in 2006 and there's every chance of that happening with further improvement likely. Whether he'll be good enough to finish ahead of defending champion and current7/4 favourite, Bobs Worth, remains to be seen but as the Nicky Henderson star showed when finishing sixth in the Betfair Chase at Haydock back in November, he is beatable but as his record of five wins from five runs at Cheltenham proves, he certainly sets an impressive benchmark.

Another Michael O'Leary owned Gold Cup entry is First Lieutenant who is a 16/1 chance and has a record of one win and two seconds from his three starts at Cheltenham, including runner up to Bobs Worth in the RSA Chase two years ago before finishing behind Cue Card in the 2013 Ryainair Chase. On his form shown at the Gloucestershire track, the Mouse Morris runner has to enter calculations but he finished nine lengths behind Last Instalment last time out, which franked the form of the time the pair met prior to that when there was a six length gap between the two in the Topaz Novice Chase back in 2011. Therefore, it is Philip Fenton's runner of the two leading O'Leary entries that looks to represent Ireland's main hope.

Whilst Bobs Worth sets the standard and Last Instalment is the Emerald Isle's best chance, it is Silviniaco Conti who sits between the pair in the betting. Second favourite to win this year's renewal, the Paul Nicholls runner looked primed to mount a challenge when falling three from home in last year's Gold Cup before finishing third in both the Betfred Bowl at Aintree last April and Betfair Chase on his seasonal debut this term. Those results cast doubt about whether the eight-year-old would be good enough to win a Gold Cup but those critics were forced to think again after he won the King George Chase in good fashion on Boxing Day. He's not been seen since that Kempton win but from a stable that has won four of the last fourteen Cheltenham Gold Cups, he ranks a huge danger to all-comers and is rated a 3/1 shot.

Captain Chris is another capable of making his presence felt after the Philip Hobbs trained ten-year-old appears to have rediscovered some of the ability he showed when winning the Arkle at Cheltenham three years ago. Inconsistent form has proven costly but back-to-back wins this calendar year, firstly a 23 length romp in a listed race at Kempton and then a 19 length victory in the Grade One Ascot Chase in February has seen him resemble something close to his former self. The fact he's never won beyond 2m 5f casts doubt over his Gold Cup credentials but he heads to Cheltenham in form and won't be short of each-way backers at the 14/1 currently available.

The 2014 Gold Cup looks to be one of the most competitive renewals of the National Hunt's premier race in recent memory and whoever emerges victorious will have seen off some tough competition but whether it will be Irish eyes that are to be smiling come Friday 14th March remains to be seen. Last Instalment and First Lieutenant are by no means bankers but it would equally be no surprise to see either return to Ireland with the trophy for the first time since 2006.

Written by Richard Smith, who writes for www.cheltenham-festival.co.uk and can be followed on Twitter @richonracing