Bobbyjo attempts to become the first horse since the mighty Red Rum to win the Martell Grand National for two years running at Aintree today with his jockey Paul Carberry admitting: 'History says he can't do it, but we'll have to try and change that.'
History does indeed suggest Bobbyjo is attempting something of a mission impossible. Only four horses in the 152 previous runnings of the world's most famous race have won back to back, with just Red Run (1973-74) and Reynoldstown (1935-36) managing it in the 20th Century.
But as the sun caked the famous Aintree course yesterday, the clear impression grew that most of the Stg£70 million that will be bet on the National, and the attention of an estimated worldwide TV audience of 500 million, will be on Bobbyjo.
After all, the Aintree fences are not quite as challenging as they once were, the ground has definitely turned in Bobbyjo's favour and although he is now rated 19 lbs higher than last year that doesn't tell the full story.
After all, the Carberry horse ran from a stone out of the handicap and beat Blue Charm and Call It A Day with Paul Carberry waving to the crowd. It can be argued that the only reason Bobbyjo is carrying 11.6 today is because the race is of comparatively poor quality.
Not that this will matter to the once-a-year punters who unusually have an extremely strong Irish team to pick from, even without the presence of Bobbyjo. His success was the first Irish Aintree National win for 24 years but it seems to have opened the door and a case of some sorts can also be made for most of the six other Irish horses.
Micko's Dream's chance is clear although the ground is a worry. That consideration has caused a gathering of momentum behind the chance of Ted Walsh's Papillon. On the bare form of the 1998 Irish Grand National, Papillon has the clear beating of Bobbyjo. At odds of around 40 to 1, that was worth taking a chance with but those odds are tumbling all the time.
Then there is Merry People whose Aintree pedigree is clear having exited only at the penultimate fence last year and Lucky Town who keeps getting placed in the top handicaps.
But all told, the best value bet for the first Grand National of the new millennium looks to be Buck Rogers. Trained in Co Wicklow by Victor Bowens, Buck Rogers is generally available at 50 to 1 this morning and that is a ridiculous price for a horse of his talent who this season has won a Leopardstown Chase with 11.11 on his back and beat the Gold Cup contender Rince Rí in the Durkan last November.
Of course there is no knowing how good Buck Rogers might have been had he not missed almost four years through horrendous injuries that almost caused him to be put down. His appalling luck since hammering Imperial Call as a mere five-year-old has been well documented but Bowens has performed wonders to get him back to just off the very top class.
Considering that, and the view that this is a relatively poor National, Buck Rogers doesn't look to have a bad weight in 11 st. He's a sound jumper who stays and can quicken at the end of his races. Bowens has no concerns about the ground and don't be put off by Buck Rogers' injury-plagued past or his relative veteran status. Royal Athlete was 12 when he won in 1995 and the most famous ex-cripple of all was Aldaniti who won the National in 1981 when he was 11. With that in mind it's a fortunate coincidence that Buck Rogers races today in the colours of 67-year-old Josephine Skinner who won a draw to have a National runner. The draw was organised by the charity Racing For Life which contributes to the Bob Champion Cancer Trust. That would make a fairytale story but at 50 to 1 Buck Rogers has no fairytale chance.
Bobbyjo's credentials are such that logically it's impossible to put anyone off him but Buck Rogers looks the each-way value.
PREDICTION
1 - Buck Rogers
2 - Bobbyjo
3 - Dark Stranger
4 - Djeddah
