'There's no danger to Istabraq. And he'll probably go on to become the only horse ever to win four Champion Hurdles. All he has to do is stay sound and healthy.' - Des McDonogh, trainer of Monksfield.
11/3/00: On the morning of the 2,000 Guineas in 1970, the Sporting Life ran the headline: 'Who will finish second to Nijinsky?' Few questioned their presumption. Vincent O'Brien's great champion won as a 4/7 favourite and so began a legend.
On Tuesday, another champion will fly from the Ballydoyle stables. Istabraq will start at about 1/3 and even if the ground opens up before him, he still looks capable of climbing back out of any hole and winning hurdle racing's championship.
Since 12 months ago, it hasn't been so much presumption as an article of faith that Istabraq will win a third successive Champion Hurdle. So much so that bookmakers have expanded on the old Sporting Life headline and have been betting on which horse will finish second to Istabraq.
Sure, there are question marks about the quality of opposition, but for every one of those there are a hundred exclamation marks of delight at how easily he beats them.
It can be convincingly argued that not since the venerated Arkle has jump racing had such a dominant champion.
'Istabraq is in a league of his own. He's so far ahead of anything else it's difficult to know how good he actually is.' - Michael Cunningham, trainer of For Auction.
Charlie Swan doesn't have time just yet to indulge in the fanciful. Istabraq's two Champion Hurdles, and the 1997 SunAlliance Hurdle for good measure, have been the highlights of his 13-winner Cheltenham career to date, but idle memories are not useful with a 50strong team of horses to look after.
For the last 18 months the universally popular nine-times champion jockey has combined riding over hurdles with the unique pressures of training his own string. Almost 40 winners in that sphere points to his talent, but he can't quit the saddle just yet. Not with the best horse he is ever likely to ride or train in his prime.
'He has definitely helped the riding career. If I was only riding the odd couple of winners I'd have packed up by now. But if Istabraq does three, I'd love to do four,' Swan says, before flashing that easy buck-toothed grin: 'And if he does four, I'd love to do five!'
Charlie ain't leaving any saddle for a while yet, but any discussion about himself or Istabraq is done on the run these days. He has discovered that a jockey's life is remarkably self-centred compared to a trainer's.
'When you're riding, it's just yourself. It's a lot easier, but a trainer has to worry about the staff, the owners, the horses, the bloody banks. Everything,' he says, while allowing one of his string have a roll in the huge indoor school at his stables and equestrian centre, three miles outside Cloughjordan.
It's obviously stressful but equally obviously the man thrives on it and his new role possibly allows him to appreciate Istabraq even more.
'I suppose he is a hurdler's Arkle really. He's just so superior. Any trip, any ground, it doesn't seem to matter to him,' he says, fully aware of the virgin ground he and Aidan O'Brien's horse are walking on when such comparisons are made. He admits that he never envisaged having to make such comparisons when he first encountered the horse, who was bred to win the Derby but achieved only average grades on the flat.
'It's not as though he is a big, gangly horse that has improved with time. But he has improved. Hurdles have been a big help, but Aidan is his biggest help. The horse has so much speed now. I don't know what Aidan has done, but when Istabraq was a novice - and I won't lie about this - I thought he needed two and a half or three miles. If he was to run on the flat again, I'm sure he'd be up to Melbourne Cup class,' he says. 'I really do, but luckily for me he won't go there.'
Instead it's the ups and downs and the deceptively tight turns of Cheltenham where Istabraq will thrive, a remarkable state of affairs considering his first experience of the place made him so anxious he sweated like a navvy.
'He's a little bit better now. Actually he's now a great ride in a race. If they go slow, he'll switch off now where he didn't before. The day I got beat by Pridwell at Liverpool he was keen and free, they went no gallop, it was heavy ground and I had him closer to the pace than I wanted.
'He's definitely more relaxed now and that and his improvement is probably a mental thing. Aidan keeps him so sweet and the horse really enjoys life down there. And he wins some of his races so easily he gets more and more confidence. It's hard to see him improve any more, but if he's as good as he was at Leopardstown the last day, that'll more than do me,' Swan says.
'the treble winners like Sir Ken and See You Then have to be the tops, but Istabraq is up there now and he's not finished yet.'
- Alan Lillingston, jockey of Winning Fair.
As Nijinsky proved 30 years ago, a highly-strung, flambouyantly-talented racehorse can capture the public imagination even more than the so-called people's champions that have emerged in recent years. But even the best flat racehorse Ireland has ever produced had his doubters.
Even Lester Piggott quibbled about the quality of opposition Nijinksy had beaten, seeming to forget that all any horse can do is beat his opposition. With Istabraq, it's not so much a case of winning easily, but winning with any amount in hand. And yet the niggle of 'what has he beaten' remains.
'It's hard to know,' argues Swan. 'Those other good horses in the past, did they beat a vintage bunch? What is a vintage bunch? I suppose the most vintage bunch I remember were Night Nurse, Sea Pigeon, Monksfield, their era. Before them were others who won three-in-arow, but was it a vintage crop then? All a horse can do is win.'
Swan has ridden more winners than most but doesn't hesitate about ranking Istabraq miles clear of horses like Montelado, Danoli and Viking Flaghsip, who were all categorised as champions. In that light, what chance have Tuesday's opposition? Realistically none.
'Dato Star has his chance if it comes up soft, but it will have to be very heavy. I've the biggest respect for him, but he does need it soft and that's rare at Cheltenham nowadays. Theatreworld is going to run a great race and will fly home, but if he beats me I'll be very disappointed. I'll be very disappointed if anyone beats me.'
Disappointment is to understate what the reaction will be if Istabraq is turned over. Dumb disbelief is a more accurate prediction of the response if the most outstandingly dominant champion National Hunt racing has had in years is beaten.
Far more likely, however, is yet another exhibition of perfectly blended power and poise by champions above and below the saddle. Thirty years ago, it was Yellow God who answered the Sporting Life's question. Now, everyone is asking it again. And that is the measure of Istabraq.
