'It was a huge performance, huge' - Ruby Walsh gives his Champion Hurdle 1-2-3
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With only two months until the 2025 Cheltenham Festival, what we all need is a few clues as to which horses will run where. Former champion jockey turned TV pundit, Ruby Walsh, was speaking on Paddy Power's ‘From The Horse’s Mouth’ podcast ‘Cheltenham Countdown’ recently, to give his thoughts on the Champion Hurdle and the Ryanair Chase. Watch the full show on Paddy Power's Racing Youtube channel.
Champion Hurdle
How’s Lossiemouth since the Christmas Hurdle, Ruby?
Obviously she hasn’t done a whole pile since and neither has State Man since he ran at Christmas — we’re only about two weeks after that event and they’re both riding out and they both seem fine and there’s not a bother on them.
I think Lossiemouth just got an education- that’s what it looked like to me. They jumped and went in the Christmas Hurdle. She’s been sauntering up to the first hurdle in a couple of races in Ireland whereas they jumped out and went at Kempton and they just got her on the backfoot from the word go.
I thought she jumped the first very high which is unlike her and Paul was really having to roust her away from the stands to jump the third and fourth hurdle and she got on their tails at the third last purely because Burdett Road in front slowed down and Constitution Hill was sat behind him.
That allowed Lossiemouth to get on their tails, but they left her again off the bend and she did keep plugging away behind them. But she has to improve for that, that run has to have sharpened her up and improve her. Will it?
I don’t necessarily know will it? And add in King Of Kingsfield going along, there’s a likely chance you’ll have Burdett Road in the Champion Hurdle too. And he’ll go with King Of Kingsfield so it could be a really strongly run race.
But she’ll have to have learnt a lot from her Kempton run to make her competitive in the Champion.
Verdict on Constitution Hill?
I thought he was very good — he’s entitled like any horse, now I don’t necessarily agree with the percentage figures that are trotted out that he was 80% or 85% fit as I think in this day and age, horses are much closer to a 100%, but they’re still not a 100% as without match practice you can’t be at 100%.
So I do think Constitution Hill will have improved, but what he shows you through the first 14 furlongs was all the old Constitution Hill. The way he travelled, the way he jumped, the swagger he had, now he didn’t open up then and go and win 12 lengths like he used to but he was entitled to need the run a little bit.
© Photo Healy Racing
Burdett Road was hard fit from running on the Flat and a good win in the Greatwood, Lossiemouth had won the Hatton’s Grace so I think he was trying to run away from really good horses but he still got away from them and still beat them and I loved what I saw.
I just loved the way he travelled, there was a good even tempo. I don’t for one minute think that it was a breakneck gallop, I thought it was a good solid even gallop and I loved what you saw about him. He had the right vibe, hadn’t he?
State Man?
Much harder to explain — you can take the positives out of Lossiemouth in that she did keep trying to hold on to the back of them. Whereas it took State Man forever to get by King Of Kingsfield.
And he still couldn’t repel Winter Fog. Now I know State Man did try to follow or go after the two front runners mid race down the back and Paul was trying to press to close the gap and he was a lot closer to the front two going to the second last than he was going to the last hurdle.
So State Man did fall in a hole but I’d say it was a very disappointing performance. Every horse is entitled to one off day but that was really off.
Could it be difficult for Brighterdaysahead to reproduce that effort?
Yeah you would — from Christmas to Cheltenham. Cheltenham is far enough for her to recover but to go and do it again at the DRF I think will be hard.
To skip that and go and do it again in March, yes I think she definitely could. It was a huge performance, huge. I saw a couple of horses that put in huge performances like that.
Like Galopin Des Champs put in a huge performance last Christmas — he wasn’t as good at the DRF now he still won and he went and won the Gold Cup but that blow your mind performances, horses have one of those of them in a year. So she’ll have to be spaced to get a second one over.
1-2-3 for the Champion Hurdle?
Constitution Hill, Lossiemouth & Brighterdaysahead
Paddy Power Champion Hurdle odds: 5-6 Constitution Hill, 4 Brighterdaysahead, 9-2 Lossiemouth, 10 State Man, 12 Anzadam, 33 Burdett Road, 40 bar
Ryanair Chase
Did you expect Fact To File to be leading this market?
I suppose going to Leopardstown looking at the bigger picture, I kind of had a feeling that if Fact To File doesn’t win here, whatever way you looked at it Galopin Des Champs was going to go from Leopardstown to Leopardstown to the Gold Cup, but a huge amount hinged on how Fact To File got on as to where he was going to go or where he’d end up.
© Photo Healy Racing
Now I do believe that he’s still going to run at the DRF and that will determine ultimately where he ends up in March , but if Galopin Des Champs beats him again comprehensively at the Dublin Racing Festival, I could see Fact To File in here absolutely.
I mean you’d take on Galopin Des Champs twice at three miles in Leopardstown and if you can’t beat him, how do you think you can beat him over three and a quarter? There’s no logic to that so I do think Fact To File could end up here providing on what happens at the DRF and leaving Leopardstown at Christmas, do I think Fact To File will turn it around?
I probably don’t. I think he raced back to front — I thought in the parade ring before the race he was so tense even going to the start early in the race, he didn’t race like a horse, I don’t know is he mentally ready for a Gold Cup yet?
He doesn’t race like a long-distance chaser — he doesn’t settle, he doesn’t switch off, he’s not behind the bridle, he was to me way too pent up and he didn’t even jump as well as he can.
He didn’t spend a year novice hurdling — he went straight from bumpers to novice chasing so in essence, he’s into a Gold Cup even though his age doesn’t suggest it, for his experience he’s into a Gold Cup with quite little experience.
If he wins [at Leopardstown in February], he goes Gold Cup, he’ll need a valid excuse [if he finishes a good second] if he stands on his head at the last like he was going to win and gets beaten, yes.
Possibly and what way they ride him as well, to settle him. There’s two ways of settling a horse, you go forward or you go back so do you go forward, do you buck out at Leopardstown say ‘come on Galopin Des Champs, I’m going this gallop, are you coming with me?’
Or do you go back to the back of the field and leave Galopin Des Champs in front, that’ll be up to Mark Walsh and their team as to what they decide to do. But there’s two ways to going about it as well, but I think what happens at the DRF will determine where he goes, in all likelihood that’s probably the Ryanair, but I’d say that’s already factored into the price is it?
Willie has three of the top five in the market - Fact To File, Gaelic Warrior and El Fabiolo. Are they all likely to go here?
I think El Fabiolo, the aim will be trying to get him to the Dublin Racing Festival, whether he gets there or not I’m not certain, but it is the aim for Gaelic Warrior and I think he will have stepped forward a good bit from Christmas.
If he goes and wins at two miles at the Dublin Racing Festival, I think he’d end up in the Champion Chase. Obviously you have Jonbon and Energumene next Saturday in the Clarence House, but I do think whatever wins at two miles at the DRF will go to the Champion Chase.
I do think that possibly that could most likely be Gaelic Warrior, El Fabiolo is on track but he won’t want to miss a day. He had a setback earlier in the season and he’s coming but the DRF might be just too soon for him.
Leopardstown 4 February 2024 El Fabiolo and Paul Townend jumping in style
© Photo Healy Racing
If he doesn’t run at the DRF, there’s obviously the Game Spirit for El Fabiolo. Willie’s not keen on travelling horses who haven’t had a run. He likes them to have had a run before they cross the Irish Sea.
So is he going to go to Cheltenham first time, if he does, would he go up to the Ryanair? I wouldn’t think so.
[Would the Ryanair not suit him?] It probably would but first time up, he’d be gassy and keen and buzzy and if you’re going to try a new distance, do you really try it first time in the Ryanair?
I think you’d have to have a run — maybe he could run in the Red Mills? What about that? It’s a better prep race than travelling so maybe something like that but I do think you’d want to see El Fabiolo having a run.
I do agree with you that jumping slightly slower might suit El Fabiolo — he’s still going to make mistakes, it’s just the way he jumps.
Ruby's Selection:
Do I see Fact To File being any bigger than 7-2 after the DRF, no I’d probably chance him.
Paddy Power Ryanair Chase odds: 7-2 Fact To File, 5 Banbridge, 5 Spillane’s Tower, 7 Gaelic Warrior, 8 El Fabiolo, Il Est Francais, 12 Energumene, Grey Dawning, 14 bar