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Which Festival favourites look vulnerable?

irishracing.com news

irishracing.com news

Leopardstown 27-December-2023.Dinoblue and Mark Walsh won for trainer Willie Mullins.Healy Racing
© Healy Racing Photos

The Cheltenham Festival is the event that frames the National Hunt season and is more eagerly anticipated than ever.

Months of Cheltenham fever will be cured when the flag drops for the Supreme Novices' Hurdle on Tuesday, March 11th.

There are 28 races across four days and, already, lots of very short-priced favourites. History tells us they won't all win. Here's our look at some market leaders who might be vulnerable.

Majborough

Arkle Chase odds: 8/13

There is no doubting that Majborough looked a hugely talented jumper in his Irish Arkle win at the Dublin Racing Festival, and he will be returning to the scene of his Triumph Hurdle win 12 months ago in the Cotswolds.

Willie Mullins' star novice chaser wasn't exactly faultless in that DRF win, with some of his early jumping eliciting audible gasps from the Leopardstown stands as he threatened to drag a couple of fences with him.

At odds-on for a two-mile event around Cheltenham, he'll need to be a bit more assured at the obstacles.

Constitution Hill

Champion Hurdle odds: 4/5

It may come to pass that getting odds this close to even-money on Constitution Hill will prove a giveaway, but it also seems likely that the probable presence of Brighterdaysahead will ask a major question of Nicky Henderson's unbeaten star.

He has returned from a year off with pleasing wins at Kempton and here at Cheltenham on Trials Day, but they weren't faultless successes. The Gigginstown mare could well be the smartest opponent he has ever faced.

“Frightening” was the word Henderson used to describe Constitution Hill's effort in a racecourse gallop at Kempton in his final prep. That does have a ring of hyperbole around it. That particular description might be better fitted to the display Brighterdaysahead gave in her Leopardstown win over Christmas, which marks her down as a serious opponent.

Fact To File

Ryanair Chase odds: 15/8

An impressive winner of the Brown Advisory Novices' Chase at this meeting a year ago, Fact To File appeared to have the world at his feet when he won the John Durkan on his reappearance in November, defeating Spillane's Tower and Galopin Des Champs.

We know that Galopin Des Champs is vulnerable around Punchestown and he has twice since put Fact To File in his place over further, while Spillane's Tower flopped in the King George on his next start.

Fact To File will be dropping back in trip for the Ryanair, it seems, and with the likes of Protektorat, Il Est Francais and Djelo — as well as Spillane's Tower — in likely opposition, he has plenty on his plate.

Dinoblue

Mares' Chase odds: 13/8

She is a likeable and fairly reliable mare, but it can't be escaped that Dinoblue has been a beaten favourite in all three visits to the Cheltenham Festival.

She was down the field in the Mares' Novices' Hurdle in 2022 and then bumped into Maskada in the Grand Annual a year later. Last time, Limerick Lace outbattled her up the hill in the Mares' Chase.

It can't be said she was a non-stayer, but she will face some more decent rivals come Festival Friday, and her lack of a Cotswolds win must be a concern given how she has shortened up in the betting.

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